Maradok 
Kereskedési feltételek
Products
Eszkozok
A price test at 1.1188 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose more than 20 pips.
The euro largely ignored the German data but still rose at the end of the day because the dollar weakened. New York Federal Reserve president John Williams allowed for only one more Fed rate hike this year and saw no need for tightening in 2027. That weakened expectations for further rate hikes and gave EUR/USD room to bounce after monthly lows.
This morning the European Central Bank will again be the market's focal point. ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak, and I think that event deserves the main focus. A hawkish tone could help the euro continue to recover against the dollar, especially as the US currency is under pressure after Williams said one more Fed hike this year is possible, but further tightening in 2027 is not needed.
Data are secondary in that context but still meaningful. German PPI will show early-stage price pressures in the supply chain, and a rise there usually foreshadows consumer-price acceleration. Spain's CPI will add information on another major eurozone economy. By comparison, German inflation in September was 3.3% year-on-year versus 2.9% in August, and the market was not surprised; the new figures will indicate how persistent that acceleration is.
There is also linkage to past ECB statements. Isabel Schnabel said current rates make it unlikely that inflation will return to target in the medium term. At the same time, Philip Lane recently stressed there are no clear second-round effects and no need for a nonlinear policy reaction. If Lagarde sides more with Schnabel today, the euro will get extra impulse; if she aligns with Lane, the rebound may be more modest. I believe the ECB president's words today will matter more than any single calendar number.
For my intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: Buy the euro today near 1.1214 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.1235. I plan to exit at 1.1235 and also sell EUR there, aiming for a 30–35 pip retracement from the entry. Expect euro gains today only after strong German data. Important: before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and only beginning to rise from it.
Scenario 2: Also consider buying if price tests 1.1201 twice while MACD is in the oversold area. That would limit downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. Expect moves to 1.1214 and 1.1235.
Scenario 1: Plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1201 (red line on the chart). Target 1.1181, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 pip reversal from that level). Strong renewed pressure on the pair is unlikely today. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and only beginning to fall from it.
Scenario 2: Also consider selling if price tests 1.1214 twice while MACD is in the overbought area. That would limit upside potential and trigger a reversal downward. Expect declines toward 1.1201 and 1.1181.
Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.
Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.
Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.
