14.10.202619:15 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – October 14

Trade Analysis and Trading Advice for the Euro

The test of the 1.1201 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator was beginning to move down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by only 10 points.

According to the data, Germany's wholesale price index rose by 1.9% month over month in September, compared with a forecast of 0.7%, which may have limited the pair's downward potential. Spain's data also contributed to a more moderate overall picture. The consumer price index for September came in at 4.9%, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month. In my view, this combination confirms that inflation in the euro area remains high and persistent, although the report showed no further acceleration in consumer prices.

In the second half of the day, EUR/USD entered the trading session with solid European economic data behind it, but without any clear indication that the pair could move independently. The main event will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Inflation is expected to rise by 0.6% month over month and 3.7% year over year, compared with 0.4% and 3.4%, respectively, in the previous readings. This would represent a significant acceleration. If these figures are confirmed, demand for the dollar could receive further support from expectations of a more hawkish Fed, especially since the probability of a December rate hike is already estimated at 80%. However, the market reaction is likely to be asymmetric. The dollar is likely to strengthen noticeably only if inflation significantly exceeds forecasts. The core inflation reading, which excludes food and energy prices, will provide an additional test by showing whether inflationary pressure has become entrenched in the economy or whether it reflects a temporary oil price shock. In May of last year, before the current wave of inflationary pressure, such a gap would have been considered unusual. Now, it has become a familiar feature of the economic landscape.

Speeches by Michelle Bowman and Thomas Barkin will follow. Barkin previously warned that excessively high inflation would have to be addressed later at a greater cost, and his rhetoric consistently reflects close attention to price pressures. Bowman, meanwhile, is among the FOMC members who take a more cautious approach to assessing the need for further policy changes.

As for the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches the 1.1200 level (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1221. At 1.1221, the plan is to close the position and consider selling the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro may rise today if US economic data comes in weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1186 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposing levels of 1.1200 and 1.1221 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: The euro is expected to be sold after the price reaches 1.1186 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1167, where the plan is to close the position and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move away from that level. Selling pressure on the pair could resume at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1200 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposing levels of 1.1186 and 1.1167 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price level at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price level at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold conditions.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, an entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially when risk management rules are ignored and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the example presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.