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A price test at 158.53 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a good entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose toward the target area of 158.82.
Today the yen has already recovered everything it lost yesterday against the dollar after the US inflation print. US CPI for September rose 0.6% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, and core CPI was 0.3% versus 0.2% expected; that temporarily pushed USD/JPY higher. US Treasury yields fell today, the dollar gave back its advantage, and the pair is back near equilibrium. Meanwhile, Japanese industry disappointed: industrial production fell 2.4% in August versus a -1.7% forecast, yet the yen barely reacted. Bank of Japan board member Junko Koeda supported the yen, warning against excessive caution on rate hikes and saying policy should adjust in time to economic and price developments. She estimates the neutral rate is noticeably above 1%, so the BOJ has room to raise from the current 1.25%. Recall that on October 6 Kazuo Ueda spoke of continued hikes, and the market prices in roughly a 25% chance of a BOJ move on October 30. In my view Koeda's hawkish tone adds credibility to that path, and as long as US yields remain lower, the yen should hold its ground.
For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: Buy USD/JPY today near 158.11 (green line on the chart) with a target to 158.36 (the thicker green line). I will exit long positions at 158.36 and open short positions there, aiming for a 30–35 pip move back. It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and strong pullbacks. Important: before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and only beginning to rise from it.
Scenario 2: Also consider buying if price tests 157.86 twice while MACD is in the oversold area. That would limit downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. Expect moves to 158.11 and 158.36.
Scenario 1: Plan to sell USD/JPY only after a break below 157.86 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline. Sellers' key target is 157.43, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs (aiming for a 20–25 pip reversal). Sellers can return at any time — you just need any hint from the central bank. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and only beginning to fall from it.
Scenario 2: Also consider selling if price tests 158.11 twice while MACD is in the overbought area. That would limit upside potential and trigger a reversal downward. Expect declines toward 157.86 and 157.43.
Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.
Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.
Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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