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A price test at 1.1217 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose only about 10 pips.
The US housing market print was weak, but this hardly explains the dollar's move on the FX market. The NAHB index fell 3 points to 29 in October, and the most notable detail was sellers' behavior: 43% of builders reported cutting prices — the highest share in years — and discounts and incentives were used by 65% of builders. The average concession has been about 6% for seven consecutive months. When builders are forced to discount so aggressively, it indicates weakening demand. Other components confirm the picture: current sales fell 2 points to 33, six-month expectations dropped 5 points to 32, and buyer traffic declined 5 points to 18. For EUR/USD, this housing data gives no cause to re-rate the pair. The euro remains dependent on dollar sentiment and on internal regional problems, the main one now being in France.
The euro enters the session with a busy calendar. We expect German producer prices, two business-sentiment indices (Germany and the eurozone) and the current-account balance. These releases can either help buyers or bring sellers back into the market, and the market will likely react quickly. Pay close attention to business-sentiment readings: based on survey responses, they show how market professionals view the next six months. Rising sentiment indices would mean easing fears about the economy and would be positive for the single currency. If sentiment worsens, euro pressure will increase because high energy prices weigh on the region's economy.
Producer prices will show how far industrial price increases have advanced, while the current-account balance reveals how resilient foreign demand is for the region. My view is simple: strong data would give EUR/USD a chance to rise, while weak prints would quickly re-pressure the pair.
For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: Buy the euro today near 1.1237 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.1255. I plan to exit at 1.1255 and also sell EUR there, aiming for a 30–35 pip retracement from the entry. Expect euro gains today only after strong data. Important: before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and only beginning to rise.
Scenario 2: Also consider buying if price tests 1.1225 twice while MACD is in the oversold area. That would limit downside potential and trigger a reversal higher. Expect moves to 1.1237 and 1.1255.
Scenario 1: Plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1225 (red line on the chart). Target 1.1211, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions (aiming for a 20–25 pip reversal). Strong renewed pressure on the pair can return at any time. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and only beginning to fall.
Scenario 2: Also consider selling if price tests 1.1237 twice while MACD is in the overbought area. That would limit upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect declines to 1.1225 and 1.1211.
Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.
Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.
Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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