20.03.201210:55 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USD/CHF Wave Analysis for March 20, 2012

Wave marking analysis:
In the course of yesterday’s trades the USD/CHF pair has managed to resume the downside movement. In the afternoon the pair tested the level of figure 91. The descending movement that has been developing since March 15 is presently looking as the completed 5-wave structure. If that proves to be so, then the price is likely to go upwards (or downwards) from the yesterday’s lows resulting in the formation of the wave B within the more continuous downside correction.

Targets for the variant with the wave A of the downside part of the trend:
0.9074 – 100.0% according to Fibonacci
0.9038 – 127.2% according to Fibonacci

Targets for the variant with the wave B:
0.9173 and higher – 23.6% according to Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
Friday’s downside movement has cancelled the option with the development of the ascending part of the trend. The whole wave marking is quite unstable and it is quite difficult to define, to which wave of the higher order the smaller waves belong. The current descending movement can be either within the 3-wave structure or can transform to the 5-wave structure with 0.9074 and 0.9038 as targets corresponding to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci.
Proceeding from this fact, it is necessary to be cautious while making deals, as there is no clear trend. The unexpected reversal of quotes to upwards can begin anytime. If this happens, it can be referred to the wave B of the descending part of the trend; the completed MACD convergence indicates the fact that this reversal is likely to take place soon.