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The USD index sank to its lowest level in almost a month amid the release of weak US statistics and reports that Washington and Beijing negotiations on the first phase of the trade agreement are continuing, despite an exchange of aggressive remarks regarding Hong Kong and other issues.
Today, the focus is on the report on the American labor market in November, which is traditionally one of the most powerful drivers of the currency market.
Analysts expect accelerated wage growth, continued unemployment at 3.6% and an increase in the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy by 186 thousand after expanding by 128 thousand a month earlier.
At the same time, leading indicators published ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls paint a negative rather than a positive picture. Data from ADP reflected an increase in employment by only 67 thousand in November against a forecast of 140 thousand. The number of people receiving benefits rose to 1.693 million, although the unemployment benefit rate fell in the last week of the month. Moreover, the employment component of manufacturing ISM was weak for the third month in a row, dropping below 50 - to 46.6. The Challenger report reflected a reduction in layoff intentions, but it did not show an increase in job offers. The only positive indicator was the component of employment in the services sector from ISM, which rose to 55.5 in November from 53.7 recorded a month earlier.
Thus, a pleasant surprise from NFP is not expected at this stage. However, if this does happen, the dollar can sharply rise in price against the background of profit taking before the weekend.
At the same time, if the employment report is weaker than forecasts, it will only worsen the already "bearish" mood of the USD. Moreover, the reaction of different currency pairs is unlikely to be the same. Major currencies such as the pound sterling and the loonie, as well as safe haven assets, including the yen, are more likely to grow.
The euro may also grow, but it is not yet clear whether it will be able to maintain its position.
The EUR/USD pair finds it difficult to determine the direction since the October rally. In recent weeks, it has twice formed the base near 61.8% correction of the rally.
The weekly high is located at 1.1115 and its breakdown will target the pair at 1.1150 and 1.1180. Thus, the NFP report must be terrible so that the bulls can break through the last level.
The main support is located at 1.1065 and its breakdown will send the pair to 1.1000. However, the bears will need more than just good NFP data to break this level.
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