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EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair was slightly more active on Wednesday compared to Tuesday. If volatility was at 30 points on Tuesday, then it was just under 50 on Wednesday, which is still very small. Nevertheless, at least some movement was observed during the day, but the calendar of macroeconomic events was empty again. Traders had nothing to react to and had to trade exclusively from levels and lines. The problem is that the euro/dollar pair remains in a very limited range, not far from its 3-year highs. It cannot be called a pronounced flat, however, no one will deny that the movement from the last three weeks is not a trend. The Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines are extremely weak in a flat. The nature of the current movement is best seen on the 4-hour timeframe. Several trading signals were formed for the euro/dollar pair on Wednesday, but a priori, with such volatility, they could not bring large profits. Actually, the first buy signal was formed in the US trading session, when most of the upward movement had already been left behind. The price broke through the Senkou Span B line, so traders had the opportunity to earn 5-6 points, since there was a rebound from the level of 1.2213. One could open a short position on the same rebound, which already brought more profit, since a rather strong downward movement began (on the 5-minute timeframe), the price crossed the Senkou Span B line without any problems. In general, the short position should have been manually closed in the late afternoon, since the pair's quotes could not go down to the next target - the Kijun-sen line. As a result, the profit on this trade was about 20 points. 25 points of total profit is a very good result, given the nature of the pair's movement.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 10. The US dollar is losing its status of "world reserve currency" due to the crazy monetary policy of the Fed.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 10. Donald Trump in touch. Former US President attacks China again.
EUR/USD 1H
The euro/dollar pair also traded in a dull manner on the hourly timeframe, but there were still a couple of impulses during the day. However, these impulses did not affect the technical picture in any way. The price still remains within a limited range, which cannot even be called a horizontal channel. The US dollar is still prone to fall, but traders have not yet found a reason to resume its sell-off right now. On Thursday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines that are indicated on the hourly timeframe. The nearest important levels at this time are 1.2104, 1.2160, 1.2213 and 1.2243, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.2184) and Kijun-sen (1.2161) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. On Thursday, the European Union is scheduled to summarize the results of the ECB meeting, as well as a press conference by Christine Lagarde. There are fears that no important information from this event will be available to traders, however, it should not be overlooked. The United States is set to publish its consumer price index for May, which is much more likely to be worked out.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair fell by 25 points during the last reporting week (May 25-31). The new Commitment of Traders (COT) reports showed that professional traders continue to build up buy positions in the European currency. This time they opened only 751 new Buy contracts, but closed 3,900 Sell contracts. Thus, the net position for this group of traders increased again, by 4,600. The bullish mood of professional traders is getting stronger, which can be clearly seen from the second indicator in the chart above, which reflects the changes in the net position for the "non-commercial" group. We see that this indicator has been constantly growing since mid-April, increasing the likelihood of further strengthening of the European currency. We have already said that the actions of the Fed and the US Congress are now simply blocking the actions of players in the foreign exchange market. Simply because professional traders make deals in both directions, and the Fed and the US authorities are constantly pouring new hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy. Therefore, the dollar is declining, despite the actions of the participants in the foreign exchange market. It seems that in recent months, players realized what they would have to work with in 2021, and simply followed the trend, not wanting to compete with the Fed. As a result, in early April, judging by the first indicator, a new round of the upward trend began.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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