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Gold, like all other assets, was hit hard during the panic and mass withdrawal of investors in the US dollar. Against this background, the precious metal fell by more than 14% relative to the March peak of $1,700 per 1 ounce, testing the mark of $1,460. After the Fed announced unlimited QE, the price of gold was able to return to the area of $1,600 per 1 ounce.
Goldman Sachs believes that the precious metal is now at a turning point in the next twelve months and will reach the mark of $1,800.
"We have long said that gold is the currency of last resort and acts as a hedging tool during a collapse in the foreign exchange market when politicians are trying to soften the blow to the economy and financial system," the bank's representatives said.
They see a direct link between the increased availability of USD and the return of gold to the status of a safe haven asset, since investors will not have to sell off assets so aggressively to release cash.
"The Fed's return to full-fledged quantitative easing, which actually provides markets with an endless stream of dollars and reduces the value of the US currency, is likely to again increase demand for gold from investors," Goldman Sachs reported.
"In the following months, the financial market will see an influx of fiat money that is not backed by anything. This will become a supporting factor for the gold market in the future," Commerzbank believes.
"The situation is the same as in 2008 and 2009 when governments and central banks turned on printing presses at full capacity," Sprott Asset Management specialists said.
"The Fed is ready to flood the markets with unlimited cash flow for bond repurchases and repo operations. This is what we call a "bazooka". In this context, expectations of lower inflation rates have finally found their place, thus stopping the growth of real rates. At the same time, the key rate is almost zero," said strategists at TD Securities.
"Hedge funds stopped their program of selling gold and began to target long positions, which may give an impetus to further growth in the value of the precious metal," they added.
According to experts, the volatility in the gold market will not disappear in the near future, but the US Central Bank was able to cope with the main headache – the pursuit of cash.
The Federal Reserve's agreements with fourteen central banks on the exchange of payment flows have somewhat cooled the demand for the greenback. By the end of the week to March 25, five regulators received $200 billion from the Fed, compared with $45 billion listed a week earlier.
"It's not clear whether the new swap lines will help rein in the dollar, but at least they make it more affordable," said HSBC analyst James Steele.
"Interest rates are likely to remain at levels close to zero, and national governments will try to use fiscal policy to bring inflation back to target levels," said Jim Luke, Manager of the Schroders Fund. He sees the rise in consumer prices as a positive factor for gold.
"Fiscal policy can take various forms, and we do not exclude direct interventions such as "helicopter money". Thus, it is difficult to imagine more "bullish" conditions for gold," the expert said.
It is expected that interruptions in the supply of physical assets due to the coronavirus pandemic will lead to a "perfect storm", which will be a prerequisite for a sharp jump in the price of gold.
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