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In the best-case scenario, in 2021, oil prices will advance to $85 a barrel.
This forecast will come true in case of a recovery of the global oil demand and successful vaccination against the coronavirus infection. Today, oil prices are rising due to lower oil production in the US and compliance of the OPEC+ deal.
At the same time, experts warn that the above-mentioned factors could be short-lived. In the short term oil prices may fall.
Notably, since the beginning of the year, oil prices jumped by 30%. The permanent gain began in November 2020 from the level of $37 per barrel. The confident dynamic was caused by the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. The fact is that this mass vaccination program gave hope for a rapid economic recovery and as a result, higher oil demand.
Of course, there are other factors that are now boosting oil prices. For example, compliance of the OPEC+ deal, extremely cold weather in the US, a drop in the US oil production as well as inability of Iran and the US to come to an agreement.
Judging by these facts, analysts foresee a rise in Brent crude up to $85 per barrel in 2021. However, according to the initial forecast, Brent will trade at $60 per barrel.
Such mixed forecasts is a result of constantly changing oil demand amid the coronavirus pandemic. Since the virus outbreak, oil prices have been reacting to various factors, including the results of the OPEC meeting, the IEA forecasts, US domestic statistics, the growth or decline of the economies of Europe and China.
At the same time, this year, if global oil demand reaches 94-96 million barrels a day, there will be no deficit. The surplus will be prevented by OPEC+forces. By the way, the next meeting of the ministerial committee is scheduled for March. At this meeting, OPEC+ members will decide on the future of the deal. It is assumed that the international organization will gradually increase the production of oil, and Saudi Arabia will return 1 million barrels per day to the market.
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