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Today, the GBP/JPY pair is attempting to extend its recovery, facing resistance at the 197.10 level and finding support near yesterday's resistance at 196.50. Market participants remain cautious ahead of key central bank decisions later this week.
The Bank of England is set to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. A 25 basis point rate cut to 4% is expected due to concerns over labor market conditions. Recently, the UK labor market has shown signs of weakening: wage growth slowed more than forecast in May, raising concerns for the central bank. However, persistent inflationary instability may lead the committee to adopt a more cautious stance. The impact of this decision will be significant for the pound and may provide strong momentum for the GBP/JPY pair.
At the same time, expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year are supporting the yen, which could become a headwind for further growth in the pair. Last week, the Bank of Japan revised its inflation outlook and reaffirmed its readiness to raise rates if inflation continues to grow in line with projections. This contrasts with the more dovish expectations surrounding the Bank of England and calls for caution when considering long positions in GBP/JPY.
From a technical standpoint, the breach of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), recorded last week, indicates a prevailing downward trend—especially given that oscillators on the daily chart remain negative. However, positive sentiment in the equity markets could limit demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen and help ease the pressure on the GBP/JPY pair, potentially cushioning the pound's losses in this pair.
If the pair manages to break above the resistance around 197.10—where the 50-day SMA converges with the 9-day EMA—it could quickly move toward the psychological level of 198.00. The main support lies at the round level of 196.00. A failure to hold above this level could accelerate the decline toward the monthly low around the 195.00 level and then to the 100-day SMA.
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