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Trading participants are adopting a clear wait-and-see stance ahead of the release of the crucial inflation report in America. This data could either strengthen or weaken expectations for the start of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes this year.
On Wednesday, the consumer inflation report will be released, with inflation expected to continue rising amid overall price increases in America, driven by higher energy prices that underpin the entire chain of goods and services. The importance of this data is indeed significant. While a fragile balance of "neither peace nor war" persists in the Middle East, market participants have focused their attention on economic data from America. A striking example of this is the volatile market reaction to last Friday's report on new jobs in the non-farm sector of the national economy.
This parallel offers hope that tomorrow's inflation report may also serve as a strong basis for notable asset price movements. If the data show an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in line with forecasts or higher, this will likely support the dollar, pushing the ICE index back above 100 points and consolidating firmly above it.
We can also expect a resumption of corrections in stock markets, primarily in the U.S. This could again lead to a continued decline in gold prices and possibly in futures for the two main types of oil, WTI and Brent.
Given such a scenario, a renewed decline in demand in the cryptocurrency market should also be expected. Bitcoin may fall below the 60,000 mark, while yields on U.S. Treasuries might rise.
I believe the importance of the economic data to be released tomorrow will force market participants to exercise caution, which will be reflected in low activity and overall consolidation of asset values across all markets.
The price of gold remains under pressure due to the potential continuation of inflation growth in America, which may lead to an increase in the Fed's interest rates. If this scenario materializes, it is advisable to sell gold at a price of 4290.20.
The pair is consolidating below the level of 1.3375. Rising inflation in the U.S. may lead it to first drop to 1.3300 and then to 1.3250. The selling level for the pair could be marked at 1.3360.
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