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On Monday, the GBP/USD pair was confidently holding around 1.3325, slightly below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3329. This positioning is linked to investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's decision following its two-day meeting concerning interest rates. This situation has allowed the U.S. dollar to maintain stability in the G10 currency markets.
The pair is currently testing an important resistance zone as market participants await the central bank's decision.
On Wednesday, the Fed is set to announce its final monetary policy decision of the year. Traders are pricing in an 86% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Many analysts suggest the Fed may adopt a hawkish stance toward rate cuts. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will update their economic forecasts for the upcoming year, which will serve as an important guideline for future monetary policy decisions.
On Friday, the UK is expected to release October's GDP data. Economists forecast a 1.4% year-on-year increase and a 0.1% month-on-month growth compared to September figures.
Despite positive data, signs of a weakening labor market lead to an estimated 87% probability of a rate cut at the Bank of England's December meeting.
From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair has fallen below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), making this level a point of resistance. However, the momentum remains bullish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
If prices manage to break above the 200-day SMA and then the 100-day SMA, a rise to the 1.3400 level for the pair will be assured.
Conversely, if the GBP/USD pair fails to maintain the 1.3300 level, further losses can be expected, with targets looking towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3262 and then the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the round level of 1.3200.
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