06.12.201911:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview for AUD/USD as of December 6, 2019

Hello!

At the time of writing this article, the AUD/USD currency pair demonstrates a fairly decent strengthening, however, the final results of trading on December 2-6 will be known after the US labor market data are published at 14:30 (London time). Let me remind you that these are some of the most important indicators that have a strong impact on the course of trading.

Unemployment in the United States is expected to remain at 3.6% in November. The coincidence with the forecast will have a neutral impact on the US dollar. If the indicator comes out better or worse than expected, the US currency will strengthen or be under selling pressure, respectively.

Hourly wage growth in the US is forecast at 0.3%, which will be a moderately positive factor for the USD. The deviation of the indicator in one direction or another will significantly affect the dynamics of the US currency.

As for the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sectors of the US economy, it is projected to add 180 thousand new vacancies in November. Expectations are quite high, especially when you consider that the last figure was 128 thousand.

As for the Australian data, which came out this week, they were quite divergent. For example, data on GDP and retail sales in Australia fell short of economists' expectations and came out worse than forecast values.

Weekly

Nevertheless, this did not prevent the AUD/USD currency pair from rising to a strong and significant resistance level of 0.6860, where the quote suspended growth and froze in anticipation of labor reports from the United States.

If the US data is negative, the pair will continue to strengthen and test for a breakdown on the strong Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator, which passes at 0.6877. The further targets of the likely growth will be the resistance level of 0.6930 and the level of 0.6961, where the 50 simple moving average is located.

In the case of a downward trend, the pair may lose all current growth and fall to past lows at 0.6755. Further targets of a possible fall will take place in the price area of 0.6720-0.6680.

In general, the technical picture on the weekly chart looks in favor of continued growth, but much will depend on today's US statistics. Also important will be the closing price of weekly trading relative to the Tenkan line, the resistance level of 0.6860 and Kijun.

Daily

But on the daily chart, everything is far from clear. The last two candlesticks indicate the probability of a downward movement. If that happens, the bears' closest targets for the Aussie will be around 0.6815-0.6800. Below, the pair may fall into the price zone of 0.6760-0.6750.

At the same time, in the case of negative Nonfarm data for the US dollar, we are likely to see strong growth, the absorption of the previous two candlesticks and the breakdown of the resistance of 0.6860. In this scenario, the pair may rise to the 200 area of the exponential moving average, which passes at 0.6919. From here we can expect a slight corrective pullback to the zone of 0.6900-0.6880, after which the "Aussie" is likely to resume the upward direction.

According to trading ideas, I can say that today is not the best day to open new positions. First, the end of weekly trading, and secondly, data on the US labor market, which will lead to increased volatility and risks. For those who want to take a risk, I suggest considering buying when the pair declines in the price area of 0.6820-0.6800 and (or) on the breakout of the resistance of 0.6860. Although the pair is trading at the resistance of 0.6860, it is better to refrain from selling due to the bullish mood of the market.

Have a successful trading and a good weekend!