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EUR/USD – 1H.
Good afternoon, dear traders! On January 12, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal pushing the euro higher versus the US dollar. So, the pair resumed its upward movement consolidating over the downward trend line. Thus, the overall sentiment is now bullish. The pair may rise to the correction levels of 50.0% - 1.2240 and 38.2% - 1.2266. Currently, investors are closely following political news from the US. Donald Trump is facing serious accusations. Once he called the attempts of his opponents to replace him " the single greatest witch hunt of a politician in American history!" In his last interview, President Donald Trump refused to take any responsibility for last week's violence at the US Capitol on January 6. He said that he did not call anyone to violence and that social networks made a serious mistake by blocking his accounts. He has also warned Democrats, who launched impeachment proceedings a couple of days ago, saying that their actions pose a new threat for the United States. As usual, no explanation was provided by Donald Trump. In Texas, where he personally inspected the wall on the border with Mexico, he also said that the new impeachment is a continuation of the old "witch hunt". Donald Trump said that he did not fuel the mob. His statements in social networks that allegedly sparked the riot on the Capitol were absolutely free of any calls for protests. Regarding the actions of Twitter and Facebook, which blocked Trump's accounts forever, Trump said that this is a serious mistake. There is no other news, especially economic ones. The US inflation report will be released today.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair is trading under the ascending trend line. Thus, the sentiment has changed to bearish. The pair may continue to drop to the correction level of 161.8% - 1.2027. On the chart, there is no divergence yet. However, on the H4 chart, the opposite situation is unfolding. The pair's quotes have consolidated above the descending trend line. For now, I recommend paying more attention to the H4 chart.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair is recovering to the correction level of 323.6% - 1.2079. If the pair rebounds from this level, the euro will gain momentum. It may grow to the Fibonacci level of 423.6% - 1.2496.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the "narrowing triangle", which may signal further growth of the pair in the long term.
Economic calendar:
On January 12, the EU and the US again did not provide any economic reports. Nevertheless, trading on this day was quite active.
EU- ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (09-00 GMT).
US- Consumer Price Index (13-30 GMT).
On January 13, ECB President Lagarde will make her first speech this year. The US will unveil inflation data. The Us inflation report is sure to have a great impact on markets.
COT report (Commitments of traders):
The activity of major players in the first New Year's week was sluggish. According to the latest COT report of January 5, the non-commercial traders opened 2,072 long deals and 3,078 short ones. That is approximately the same amount. The commercial traders did likewise when it comes to a total number of long and short deals. Firstly, these figures are very low, and secondly, they do not indicate any particular trend. It seems that speculators in the first New Year's week enjoyed the holiday avoiding trading. Thus, there are no special changes following the results of the next week. The mood of traders remains bullish. A couple of months ago, a new downtrend appeared but it did not develop due to the weakness of the US dollar.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations:
On Wednesday, I recommend opening loon deals on the euro with the target level of 1.2240 and 1.2266 on the hourly chart if it consolidates above the level of 61.8% - 1.2214. Short deals on the pair can be opened at a target level of 1.2131 if the pair consolidates under the level of 76.4% - 1.2182 on the hourly chart.
TERMS:
"Non-commercial" - large market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, and big investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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