15.08.201810:22 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for 15/08/2018

Both European and American stock market investors ended yesterday in minor moods. Today the situation looks a bit different. In Europe, we watched the mixed closing of the trading session. The growth was made by companies from Belgium, Poland and Hungary, while declines were recorded on the French, Italian and Spanish stock exchanges. The situation is much better in the case of the US stock market. After the first three hours of the session, all three main indexes gain, with the largest increases recorded by technology companies from the Nasdaq index.

The Canadian and New Zealand dollar is doing well in the currency market. The depreciation is, in turn, experienced by the euro and the currency of Norway. In the case of the emerging market, it is worth mentioning the reverse of the Turkish lira. The currency of Turkey today negates some recent declines and now the USD/TRY rate is around 6.45. Against the background of emerging market currencies, the Polish zloty is weak today, gaining only against the shekels, the Hungarian forint and the Czech koruna.

Looking at the raw materials market, we see quite a good condition of precious metals. Let us remind you that this group of metals experienced a strong sell-off yesterday. In turn, today's sale is observed on the market of industrial metals, where copper and tin are particularly hard to lose. After recent large drops, soy prices are now reflected. On the oil market flat before the publication of the API report on "black gold" inventories.

On Wednesday, the 15th of August, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on Consumer Price Index Data from the UK and Retail Sales, NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index, Non-Farm Productivity, Labor Cost and Industrial Production data from the US. No speeches are scheduled for today as well.

GBP/USD analysis for 15/08/2018:

The main event today will be the CPI data release from the UK. The market participants expect no change in inflationary pressures on a monthly basis (0.0%), but expect a tick up from 2.4% to 2.5% on a yearly basis. The Core CPI should remain unchanged at 1.9% as well. Any difference from the consensus will be a big surprise for markets and the market participants will act accordingly: bigger than expected CPI figures should make the GBP to strengthen across the board.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. Despite the extremely oversold market conditions and the ongoing bullish divergence, the price has made another local low at the level of 1.2689. In this trend, the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2603 - 1.2586. On the other hand, the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2793 and 1.2818, but the game-changing level is still at 1.2956.