21.11.201715:01 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 21/11/2017

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBZ) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes were published overnight, but no major surprises were found out. However, the general tone of the minutes seems somewhat more subdued than investors have seen in recent reports. The RBA still expects the inflation to increase, but the pace is described as "only gradually". This is consistent with the revised forecasts for underlying inflation for 2018 and 2019. In August, the regulator's forecast for underlying inflation was at 2.0% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019 (mid-points of the range). The forecast has been downgraded to 1.75% in 2018 and 2.0% in 2019.This downward revision in consumer inflation is attributed to the reweighting of the CPI by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Another RBA concern is about weak wages growth, "various measures of growth in wages had not yet picked up and had been lower in preceding quarters than forecast a year earlier". Some recognition that part of this explanation might be structural is given, "the possibility that globalization and technology were leading wage growth to be less responsive to changes in the demand for labour". This was noted as a global theme and may explain partly the decision to slow down the pace of the expected pick-up in inflation.

RBA President Phillip Lowe started the press conference with positive surprise as he stated that it is more likely that the bank's next decision will be to raise interest rates. However, he added that there are currently no strong arguments for a rapid change in monetary policy. Continuation of accommodative policy is an appropriate approach.

In conclusion, the RBA is still concerned about low wages and a lack of the inflationary pressures, which means the interest rates might not be on the table again until the beginning of the next year, despite the brave and surprising statements from Lowe.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After Lowe surprising statement the bulls have managed to break out from the channel and rally towards the nearest technical resistance at the level of 0.757, but the enthusiasm might be short-lived as the key to the upside is still the resistance at the level of 0.7625. Please notice the deeply oversold market conditions might help to lift the price towards the resistance.