21.11.201715:02 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 21/11/2017

Chairperson Janet Yellen announced yesterday that she would not stay on the Fed board after handing over to Jerome Powell. The decision to shorten the term of office (originally until 2024) was predictable - it was difficult to be number 2 if it was number 1. President Trump then holds another seat on the board from the fill, raising their number to four (out of seven). The names are to be announced before the end of the year, and among the potential candidates is still the race loses president John Taylor. As a result, the Fed's board may eventually be hijacked (as Powell is treated as neutral) by hawks. Besides, the rotation of voting rights at the FOMC meetings among regional governors in 2018 gives the hawkish authorities. However, it is doubtful that the USD was quick to count on a positive impulse. The market tends to play the Fed's policy from meeting to meeting. Almost a certain rate hike in December is fully discounted. Another wave of dollar appreciation under the influence of monetary policy will appear only when the Fed gives a clear signal that another rate hike in March 2018 is likely. Until then, fiscal and macroeconomic policies remain above the hierarchy of factors.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to break out above the black trend line at the level of 112.15, but no new high was made yet and the price is back inside the downward channel zone. The momentum is not accelerating upward, but the market conditions favor the dip buyers.