14.02.201811:00 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Trading plan for 14/02/2018

Long-term review

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The Wednesday's session in the forex market in Asia was a bit like the yesterday's trading in Europe, that is, it left the US Dollar under the pressure of sales. USD/JPY had a temporary spike down under 107, and NZD found power in the inflation expectations. The stock market moves in different directions. Crude oil is based on the negative indications of the API report.

On Wednesday, 14 February, the event calendar is quite busy in important data releases. The market participants should keep an eye on German Final Consumer Price Index and Preliminary GDP data, Eurozone Industrial Production and GDP data, and during the US session, on Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales data from the US.

The USD/JPY analysis for 14/02/2018:

The preliminary reading of Japan's GDP for the fourth quarter fell below forecasts at 0.1% vs expected 0.2%. The annualized increase amounted to 0.5% versus forecasts of 1.0%. However, the data did not change much in the JPY outlook, which was the largest beneficiary of the weakening USD.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. USD/JPY recorded a daily low at 106.80 before it recovered to 107.2, so the important daily time frame technical support was broken. Currently, the price is trying to bounce towards the level of 107.53, but it does not look like the bulls are strong enough to break out above this level. Both RSI and Stochastic are at oversold levels.

Market Snapshot: SPY is consolidating the recent gains after a bounce

The price of SPY (SP500 ETF) has been consolidating in the zone of 263.27 - 266.90 after a recent bounce from the level of 252.92. This zone is just above the 61% Fibo at the level of 265.30, so it might take a while to the market to decide which way it wants to follow after the recent sell-off. The next important technical resistance is seen at the level of 272.10.

Market Snapshot: DAX is still under the resistance

The price of German DAX index is trading below the technical resistance zone of 12,318 - 12,386 in the oversold market conditions. Only a sustained breakout above this area would indicate the next important resistance at the level of 12,503. Otherwise, the price might test the strength of the local support at the level of 11,996 soon.

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