12.03.201811:29 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for March 12, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite indecisive recently after having an impulsive bearish pressure taking the price all the way down below 1.2350 price area with a daily close. Due to mixed economic reports on Friday, USD failed to gain momentum as expected ahead of the upcoming Rate Hike this month. On Friday, US Unemployment Rate report was published with an unchanged value of 4.1% which was expected to decrease to 4.0% whereas Non-Farm Employment Change increased to 313k from the previous figure of 239k which was expected to decrease to 205k. Moreover, Average Hourly Earnings report was also published with a decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.2%. As for the economic reports, it seemed like the Employment Change did not have much impact as the Average Hourly Earnings decrease means that the development was not impulsive as the indicator was expected to show just minor increase. The mixed economic report dented the expected USD rally against EUR recently whereas the market sentiment is still expected to be in favor of USD in the coming days. This week, US Retail Sales, Core CPI and Building Permits reports are going to be published which are likely to reveal mixed results, leading to further indecision and correction in the market. On the other hand, today the Euro Group Meeting is going to be held which is expected to have a neutral impact on the shared currency today. Moreover, this week ECB President Draghi is going to speak on the Interest Rate and future monetary policy. His comments are also expected to have a neutral impact on the market sentiment as well. As for the current scenario, any positive economic report from the US this week may extend bearish pressure in the pair if ECB President fails to provide a positive economic outlook in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price was quite indecisive on Friday, closing above 1.23 but below 1.2350 which creates a small range between these 50 pips. Currently the price is expected to retest 1.2350 price area with a daily close and then proceed impulsively lower towards 1.2160 and later towards 1.2050-60 price area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.2350 with a daily close, further bearish pressure is expected.