15.08.201811:04 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 15/08/2018

Moscow is still interested in trading with Ankara using the Russian ruble and Turkish lira. Both currencies fell compared to the US dollar, and TRY sets new records every day.

"The issue of using national currencies in interstate commerce is a topic which the Russian side has been dealing with for a long time and consistently at various levels, including at the highest level - said the Kremlin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov. "This is what we strive for in our bilateral trade and economic relations and what has been repeatedly mentioned in bilateral Russian-Turkish talks," he added.

Lira dropped to a record low of 7.20 against the dollar, and then strengthened to 6.16 on Wednesday amid increasing pressure from new US sanctions. Washington began to exert economic pressure on Ankara after the arrest of the American priest Andrew Brunson in Turkey. Brunson is accused of helping in an unsuccessful military coup in 2016. He is facing 35 years in prison in a Turkish prison.

Let's now take a look at the USD/TRY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market so far has made a swing high at the level of 7.11 and since then the rate is plummeting towards the technical levels of 6.41 and now towards 5.43. The last one is the most important technical support for the price before the 4.97 level. So far the low was made at the level of 5.90 and the indications like RSI and Stoch are pointing to the downside but in the current unstable macroeconomic environment might be a much more important factor to impact the market behavior anyway.