24.10.201807:49 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 24/10/2018

The expectations regarding the possibility of meeting the leaders of the two largest economies in the world are clearly descending. Both Trump and Xi are pessimistic about the chance to resolve the deepening trade war. Larry Kudlow confirmed yesterday that the presidents will meet "for a moment" during the G20 meeting, which will take place on November 30 in Buenos Aires. There is a chance to "establish the basic principles of cooperation", but Kudlow stressed that it is better not to count on it.

International corporations are already feeling the effects of the trade war, the problem is also beginning to affect consumers in the US and China. According to sources from the Middle Kingdom, the Chinese administration is less willing to settle than at the beginning of the conflict and is now preparing for a long fight and adaptation to new trade conditions.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H1 time frame. The bulls have bounced from the technical support level at 268.45 and have managed to fill the gap between the levels of 274.86 - 271.71. Moreover, the price has hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last big swing down. Nevertheless, the market still trades below the short-term descending trend line and below the 61% Fibo at the level of 276. 34, so there is still no reason to get excited for bulls as they must break through the trend line to establish control over the market. If they will not break through, the bears will push the prices lower again.