02.01.201908:36 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 02/01/2019

Investors are still not sure whether the cuts in production declared by the OPEC countries and its allies will be able to counteract the dynamically growing oil production in the US. Concern about the impact on US economic growth is also caused by the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China, as well as the monetary policy of the Fed.

The US President Trump prevailed this year as an oil price regulator because he was involved in everything - from sanctions against Iran and the ban on Iranian oil imports, through Washington's trade war with Beijing, to tension in relations with Saudi Arabia. Although oil prices have stopped falling, their growth rate next year may also be only a gradual.

In this quarter, WTI crude oil in the US drops almost 38% while back in 2018, WTI crude oil on NYMEX has so far decreased by 24%, after a rise in the previous two years by over 60%. Brent lost 35% in the fourth quarter, and finished the year with a loss of 19.5%.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. There is a big, unfilled gap down between the levels of 45.62 - 52.22 and despite the extremely oversold market conditions, the bulls are so far too weak to fill the gap. After a shallow bounce, the local high was made at the level of 46.95 and since then the market is locked between the levels of 44.30 - 46.95 as it trades horizontally. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of 49.40, the nearest support is seen at the local swing low at 42.04.