23.07.201912:27 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Analysis of EUR/USD for July 23, 2019

EUR/USD is trading under bearish momentum after some corrections in the price range of 1.1200 to 1.1300. Ahead of the widely expected rate at the Fed's policy meeting in July, EUR/USD is going to trade under higher volatility.

The eurozone's economy has suffered from the global trade pressure and a slowdown in the economic growth which lead to further EUR weakness against USD. The European Union is keen to work with the US to reform the World Trade Organization and cooperate on common challenges to the global trade. However, the EU authorities will retaliate if the US impelements its threat to raise car tariffs. Earlier, the US stated that it aims to impose tariffs on $11.2 billion of European goods. But the EU is going to resist that might affect trading costs. After weeks of speculation that interest rate cuts and another round of asset purchase are on their way, the nearest ECB meeting is expected to give the answer which would determine market sentiment. Moreover, ECB chief Mario Draghi last month flagged fresh easing to fight stubbornly low inflation.

This week on Thursday, the Main Refinancing Rate report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.00%. Following the rate report, Monetary Policy Statement and ECB Press Conference are expected to have a great impact on EUR in the coming days.

On the other hand, US President Trump has targeted the Federal Reserve for its rhetoric. A 50-basis point rate cut is most expected at the July meeting if the central bank gives in to the government pressures. But Fed officials stated that they would not bow to political pressure. Besides, several officials said that growing risks to the economy justify a rate cut. Policymakers expressed concerns that a global economic slowdown and international trade conflicts could derail economic growth in the US despite recent upbeat economic data.

This week, US Durable Goods Orders are expected to rebound to 0.8% from the previous value of -1.3% and Core Durable Goods Orders are expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.4%. Moreover, on Friday, US preliminary GDP report is also going to be published which is expected to contract to 1.8% from the previous value of 3.1% while flash GDP Price Index is expected to increase to 4.0% from the previous value of 0.9%.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently moving lower below 1.1200 under strong bearish momentum. Trading below the dynamic level which indicates further bearish pressure with a target towards 1.1100 support area. As the price remains below 1.1200 with a daily close, the bearish pressure is expected to extend further.