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EUR/USD rallies today as the dollar index is very heavy again, the pair is pressuring a major dynamic resistance, but only a valid breakout above this obstacle will suggest buying. The pair is trading at 1.1284 level, the buyers are in full control, but a USDX's rally after the US data will bring the sellers back in the game.
EUR/USD is bullish, the pair could jump higher if the US data will disappoint today. Technically, a potential larger correction was invalidated when the price has failed to make another lower low.
As you already know from my previous analysis, a valid breakout above the upper median line (UML) will bring us a long opportunity. You should be careful because a false breakout will suggest selling, this scenario is less likely to happen as the price has failed to take out the 1.1200 support in the last breakdown attempts.
The 1.1422 is seen as a first upside target if the rate will close and stabilize above the upper median line (UML). The failure to test and retest the 38.2% retracement level and the former Falling Wedge pattern has signaled a bullish momentum in the short term.
A valid breakout above the UML, close above and retest, will suggest buying as EUR/USD will be expected to climb higher. This scenario will take shape if the USDX will drop deeper in the short term. Another higher high, a jump above the 1.1422 could announce a broader increase.
Another drop could appear only if the price will make another false breakout with great separation above the upper median line (UML), and if EUR/USD will make a valid breakdown below the 1.12.
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