21.07.201713:37 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Markets Filled with optimism

As a result of the head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi press conference, the market seems to have finally decided that the European regulator will begin to reduce the stimulus next year or totally stop aimed to support the economy against the positive economy in the eurozone.

The results of the ECB July meeting cited a double scenario but it failed to express firmly the decision to change the economic course this fall. Yet, market players are satisfied that Draghi mentioned that this issue will be discussed which without reservations clearly stated that this issue has not yet been resolved and not even mentioned in the bank meetings. They could no longer convince for a reverse. On this wave, the single currency soared primarily against the US dollar and continued the upward trend which is already on the wave about another scandal news involving President D. Trump.

Watching how the euro rallies against the US dollar, starting with the outcome of the presidential election in France in the wake of the weakness of the "American", it can be assumed that the major currency pair after a breakout of the local high last year which grew to the highest value in May 2015. However, in order to rise above the 1.1700 mark, it will be necessary for the ECB to stop government buying bonds next year amid a continuous growth in the European economy, as well as an increase in inflationary pressures. Before the bank meeting in autumn, the inflation rate will be maintained at the current levels and the economic growth will remain sluggish. It is unlikely for the European regulator to change the current rate which could push down the euro with all of the succeeding consequences.

Based on this, the pair will consolidate around this mark in anticipation of news from the ECB when it reaches the 1.1700 level until the fall.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair corrected after reaching a local maximum on the wave of a weakened US dollar, as well as positive dynamics in the economies of Australia and China which have very close trade relations. In this situation, the pair will most likely adjust as influenced of a strong technical overbought to 0.7830 which corresponds to 38% Fibonacci retracement. The price should break towards the 0.7890 mark.

The USD/JPY pair weakened as it dropped between the levels of 111.70-112.40 on the wave of contradictory news. On the other hand, the decision of the Central Bank of Japan not to change its economic course that supported the pair while the U.S. dollar weakened. It is likely that she will remain in this range today.