17.08.201705:34 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Will the Fed start a program to reduce the balance?

The US dollar strengthened significantly yesterday against the euro and the British pound. The greenback rose against the background of good data on retail sales in the US, while Germany's GDP and inflation in the UK turned out to be much worse than economists' forecasts.

Today, attention will be drawn to the data on the euro area's GDP which may also negatively affect the quotations of the euro, especially in pair with the US dollar. It is expected that for the second quarter of this year, the economy of the euro area will grow by 0.6% from the first quarter.

You should also pay attention to the data on the labor market in the UK. The poor performance of the data can lead to an even larger sale of the British pound against the US dollar. The number of applications for unemployment benefits is expected to increase by 7.2 thousand in July, after rising by 6 thousand in June this year.

If in the first half of the day you can expect a slight surge in volatility in major trading instruments, then later in the day and closer to the US session, you can expect investors to focus on the publication of the minutes of the the Federal Reserve meeting that was held last July 25-26.

The committee left interest rates unchanged, saying that it plans to begin a program to reduce its balance in the near future already. It is most likely that the program will be launched in September of this year. In the meeting that will be held on September 19-20, the Fed can leave rates unchanged. However, they can also start a program to reduce the portfolio of bonds. Earlier, it was stated that the volume of this program will be around 4.5 trillion dollars. Therefore, when studying today's protocols, you need to pay special attention to clearer signals regarding the beginning of the Fed's reduction of the balance sheet.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the 1.1690 area remains as a good support level. This is where many buyers of risky assets will once again enter the market with the aim of forming a larger long position for the euro in the medium term. Securing the level of 1.1750 will also serve as a good signal for the growth of the euro with a return to 1.1790 and renewal of 1.1840.

The Australian dollar slightly strengthened its position today in the Asian session after the release of data on the wage index of Australia.

According to the report of the statistics agency, the index of wages in Australia for the second quarter of this year increased by 0.5%. It fully coincided with the forecasts of economists. Compared with the same period in 2016, the wage index rose by 1.9%.