20.10.201709:24 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Uncertainties are pressing the markets

Uncertainties are pressing the markets.

Trades on the world markets passed under the sign of unwillingness to be active on Thursday. This is connected with many reasons, producing uncertainty.

First and foremost, there are tensions in the Middle East, which is a large source of fear for market players that pushes them to shift towards defensive assets. It also pushes crude oil prices up but any suspension of the negative news sharply turns prices for "black gold" down on the wave of profit-taking.

Secondly, the wait for the appointment of a new US Federal Reserve head is a strong deterrent for the US dollar movement whose future, in many aspects if not everything, will depend on monetary policy in terms of more active or not very high interest rates. In the last article, we already indicated that out of the remaining five contenders for the post of J. Yellen's successor as head of the Fed, three are among the supporters of a stricter monetary policy namely Cohn, Warsh, and Taylor. The other two are Yellen herself and Powell. Therefore, the appointment of someone from the camp of stricter monetary policy will increase the chances of strengthening the dollar, in theory.

The euro is likely to stay in the range before the ECB's monetary policy meeting next week. It is under the influence of uncertainty in which the decision on measures to stimulate the European economy will be adopted. If the bank decides to reduce the incentive program and at the same time prolongs it for only six months, and then announces its complete elimination, this will be a supporting factor for the euro. However, if a decision is made to reduce incentive measures and prolong the program until the end of 2018 with a lack of certainty as to whether it will continue, we can expect a local downturn of the euro against all major currencies and a noticeable decline in its future.

Forecast of the day:

The EURUSD pair is likely to remain in the range of 1.1740-1.1875 today. It is also likely that today, on the wave of local strengthening of the dollar, it will adjust to the lower limit of the range of 1.1740.

The GBPUSD pair may adjust upward to 1.3150. However, if it does not overcome it, it is likely that its decline will continue to 1.3030 or even lower to 1.3000.