09.02.201808:14 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: The dollar has every chance of continuing to grow

Against the background of the renewed collapse in the US stock market where the major stock indexes fell from 3.75% to 4.15%, the US dollar was again bought as safe haven asset.

Investors around the world are watching closely and dramatically at the drama unfolding in the US stock market. On Thursday, the main stock indexes fell again and it is noticeably significant. The indices of the Dow 30, S & P 500, and NASDAQ 100 fell by 4.15%, 3.75% and 3.90% respectively. Investors continue to speculate on what the correction is and whether it is still the forerunner of the collapse. In this situation, we can not talk about the second but if things go on, the simple correction will not end there.

The foreign exchange market reacted to this event quite calmly, which confirms our thesis. The US dollar grew by the end of trading but not so noticeably. The restraining factor for it is still the expectation that if not all central banks of economically developed countries will follow the tightening of monetary policy, then the ECB and the Bank of England will, that's for sure. Moreover, on Thursday, following the results of the latter's meeting, the market saw in the published resolution that came after the meeting the desire of the regulator to raise interest rates "faster than was expected until recently." And although at a press conference, bank manager M. Carney said that the rates would increase gradually, the sterling added more than one percent against the US dollar.

Modeling the likely development of events, we can say that the world financial markets and, of course, the currency markets will remain under the strongest influence of the dynamics of the US stock market. If the fall in the United States continues, and we believe that a serious corrective movement is just beginning, then in this situation, at a wave of probable further growth in yields on government bonds of the US Treasury, the dollar will continue to at least smoothly grow. An important supporting factor for it is the growth in expectations for the continuation of the Fed's interest-rate cycle this year.

Forecast of the day:

The AUDUSD pair remains in the short-term downtrend on the wave of strengthening in the US dollar and the RBA decision on the results of the meeting does not yet seek to increase the cost of borrowing. Against this background, a price decline below 0.7760 could lead to a drop to 0.7700.

The USDCAD pair is supported by a fall in crude oil prices and a rise in expectations for the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. Given this, it can be assumed that if the price holds above 1.2570, there is a possibility of continuing its local growth to 1.2670.