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On Tuesday, economic data came out exactly in favor of the dollar, which further reflected in the initial decline of the single European currency. But at the end of the American session, investors began to buy again the European currency. As a result, the euro slightly decreased by 10 points. In the afternoon, the ZEW business sentiment index in Germany dropped from 5.1 to - 8.2 in April, while the ZEW eurozone business sentiment index fell from 13.4 to 1.9 against expectations of 7.3. In the euro area, this is the lowest level since July 2016, while in Germany was in November 2012. The fall of the indices was higher than the negative forecasts yesterday for these parameters. The European indicator was able to reach the 2012 minimums at -22.3 points. To save from such pessimism, there is a tendency that offices of English companies may move to Germany and France in the Brexit process.
In the United States, the estimate of industrial production in March grew by 0.5% against the forecast of 0.3%, which maintained the capacity utilization at the April level. The decline was minimal from 78.1% to 78.0% against expectations of 77.9%. Yesterday, the moderate optimism of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank head John Williams could possibly be related to this factor, Williams said that the moderate pace of rate hikes will not lead to economic overheating.
Today, the final estimates of the Euro-zone CPI for March are coming, with no changes expected, 1.0% YoY for the base CPI and 1.4% YoY for the total. According to the US, no important data will be published. At 7:00 PM London time, the Fed's Beige book will show a review of the Federal Reserve in the economic regions of the United States. On the same day, William Dudley and Randal Quarles will speak. The speeches of both Fed representatives will be about monetary policy.
Therefore, the pressure on the euro is increasing every day. We are expecting for a breakdown on speculative sentiments (albeit under the guise of increasing appetite for risk), despite their strength, the euro could grow to 1.2440.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
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