20.04.201809:14 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: The sterling has every chance to continue its decline

The British pound again fell in the wake of a sell-off due to the release of weak data on retail sales and volume in the UK.

According to the data presented, the base retail sales index in March fell by 0.5% against the forecast of a decline by 0.4% and the February growth by 0.4%. In annual terms, the indicator in growth fell to 1.1% against expectations of growth of 1.4% and the previous value of 1.2%. The retail sales in annual terms fell to 1.1% against the forecast of growth of 2.0% and the previous value of 1.5%, and its March value fell more than expected, by 1.2%, against 0.5% and February growth by 1.5%.

First, after the publication of the data, sterling, oddly enough, even received support and began to gain against the US dollar. Such dynamics of the market can be explained by the general weakness of the US dollar and the likely desire of a number of large market players to take advantage of the low activity of market participants and "collect orders" for those whose bet on the selling of the GBPUSD pair. But everything already fell into place in the Asian trading session, the pair fell more than one figure and "lies" at the support level of the short-term uptrend.

Assessing the prospects for the Bank of England, we note that it faces a difficult task, which, it seems, will force itself to refrain from deciding to raise interest rates at the June meeting. The reason for this is the latest data of economic statistics, which indicated not only a drop in inflationary pressures, but also a general decline in economic growth, as the latest GDP data show.

Another strong negative for the British pound is the unresolved issue of Britain's withdrawal from the EU. After the active negotiation process in the winter of this year, in the spring everything was quiet. The British agreed on a transition period, but it seems that they have failed to reduce the financial compensation of the EU, which has a negative impact on the country's economy, of course, apart from the very factor of the severance of many economic ties between Britain and continental Europe.

It is likely that we will witness a new wave of a decline in sterling.

Forecast of the day:

The GBPUSD is trading above 1.4065 on a wave of expectations that the Bank of England will continue the cycle of raising interest rates in the near future. Estimating this, we can assume that the pair after overcoming the mark of 1.4065 will then fall to 1.3960.

The USDCAD pair continues to grow towards our target level of 1.270 amid the Canadian CBA's lack of desire to raise rates. The pair also supports and stops the rise in oil prices after reaching a local peak. Most likely, if the pair overcomes the level of 1.2700, its growth will continue to 1.2800, if the price of oil again unfolds upwards.