24.04.201803:57 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: No reason to buy the euro

Friday's speech by ECB President Mario Draghi continues to put pressure on risky assets.

Most likely, after weak economic data in the first quarter of this year, as well as weak inflation, despite its small growth, the European Central Bank's management can seriously consider preserving the current conditions of a consistent soft policy with respect to the asset repurchase program and interest rates until the end this year.

A number of major financial institutions also pointed to the fact that any further change in the policy of the ECB will be gradual. This will necessarily affect the mood of market participants, which were aimed at a more aggressive approach from the ECB. It will also affect the rate of the European currency, which, according to the European regulator, is at a fairly high level. The decrease in demand for the euro will lead to a redistribution of currency positions in the market in favor of the US dollar and the Japanese yen. However, everything will change quickly when new fundamental data indicates the recovery of the euro area economy.

On Monday, the reports on the preliminary composite index of supply managers of PMI of France, Germany and the eurozone were published. So, the composite index of supply managers PMI in France in April this year showed a slight increase, to 56.9 points against 56.3 points in March. For the industrial sector of France, the index in April fell to 53.4 points, against 53.7 points in March. Economists had expected it at the level of 53.5 points.

In Germany, a similar index of supply managers PMI in April rose to 55.3 points against 55.1 points in March. PMI for the manufacturing sector in Germany was 58.1 points, while PMI for the service sector - 54.1 points.

All this suggests that activity in the private sector has been growing at a steady pace, despite the small economic downturn and protectionism from the US.

In the eurozone as a whole, according to the IHS Markit report, the composite index of supply managers in April 2018 was 55.2 points. Economists had expected the index to decline to 54.8 points. Let me remind you that the index values above 50 points, which indicates an increase in activity.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the bearish scenario, of which I spoke more in detail in the morning, continues to work. The return to an intermediate support of 1.2265 led to a new wave of short positions in risky assets, and accordingly to the renewal of lows in the area of 1.2240.It slightly fell short of reaching the level of 1.2210, which is now the next target of the sellers. The key goal in the euro will be a low from February this year at around 1.2140.