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4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
Senior linear regression channel: direction – down.
Youngest linear regression channel: direction – down.
The moving average (20; flattened) is up.
СCI: 81.7932
The EUR/USD currency pair managed to overcome the moving average line on June 22, but the prospects of the upward movement remain very vague, as the bulls do not have enough strength to develop a short-term upward trend. Donald trump regularly adds fuel to the fire, which seems to intend to impose trade sanctions against all countries that have at least some trade relations with the United States. According to Trump, the US takes a disadvantageous position in relations with trading partners and he intends to fix it. Traders interpret these events as signals to buy the US dollar. Therefore, on Monday, the price may return to the area below the moving, and the downward trend-to resume. If the attempt to gain a foothold below the moving will be unsuccessful, the bulls can get a chance to test the level of Murrey " 0/8 " - 1,1719. Although the strong overpurchase of the CCI indicator indicates a more likely downward movement.
Nearest support levels:
S1 - 1,1597
S2 - 1,1475
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1,1719
R2 – 1,1841
R3 – 1,1963
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD currency pair overcame the moving, but the last bars are painted in blue, which indicates at least the beginning of the correction. The color of 1-2 bars in purple when the price is above the moving average will be a signal to buy-positions in small lots with a target of 1.1719.
Short positions can be re-considered if the price overcomes the moving and, preferably, the level of Murrey "-1/8". In this case, the bearish trend with the target of 1.1475 will be resumed with a high probability.
In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanations for illustrations:
The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.
The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.
CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.
Murrey levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.
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