06.07.201802:34 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD. The 5th of July. Trading system "Regression Channels". All the attention to the speech of Mark Carney.

4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

Upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

Lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

Moving average (20; flattened) - up.

CCI: 116.7242

The GBP/USD currency pair on Wednesday, July 4, confidently continued the upward movement, as indicated by a whole series of purple bars of the Heiken ASHI indicator. From the macroeconomic events concerning the pound sterling, we can only distinguish the index of business activity in the service sector, which pleasantly surprised traders. On Thursday, all the attention is on macroeconomic reports from America and the speech of the Bank of England head Mark Carney at 10-00 GMT. Recently, Carney has disappointed the markets with his doubts about the consequences of Brexit, as well as with the soft position regarding the tightening of monetary policy. If his rhetoric does not change, it could create a new pressure on the British pound, which in recent days is more expensive on technical factors. As for the reports from the United States, they should be strong, so that traders who are paying more attention to Trump's statements currently begin buying the US currency. We draw attention to the fact that both channels of linear regression are still directed downwards, keeping the downward trend in the medium and long-term plans.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1,3184

S2 – 1,3062

S3 – 1,2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1,3306

R2 – 1,3428

R3 – 1,3550

Trading recommendations:

For the GBP/USD pair, the upward movement continues, therefore, it is recommended to stay in long positions or build them up to 1,3306. At the time of the release of important fundamental news, you need to be prepared to reduce or close buy-positions. Technically, the correction can be determined by the color of 1-2 bars in blue.

It is recommended to open short positions only after fixing the price below the moving average line with the target of 1.3062. In this case, the downtrend may resume.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of the linear– purple line unidirectional movement.

CCI- the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20;smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Murrey levels are multi-colored horizontal stripes.