15.01.201917:46 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: "Authorities" put on the British pound

It will take a majority of the votes of the legislators so that Theresa May's unpopular Brexit agreement will be approved. If the document is rejected by 100 people, it will increase the risks, in particular, the risk of strengthening the opposition and early elections will increase, which will lead to a drop in the pound.

Nevertheless, the sterling in this situation has the opportunity to resist, since the market will follow the chances of the British prime minister to the second vote. This opinion is shared by global strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. The agency has published the views of the most experienced analysts on the likely outcome of a meaningful vote and the potential reaction of the pound.

Credit Agricole

If there are 100 votes or less against the agreement, this can lead to consolidation of sterling. With a greater number of votes against in conjunction with a vote of no confidence from the Labor Party, the pound may have to part with recent conquests. In the case of a loss of Theresa May with a margin of 100 or more votes, the pair GBP / USD will reach $ 1.25. Credit Agricole has a deal targeting $ 1.39 for half a year. Banking analysts are confident that the British pound will soon begin an uptrend.

Mizuho Bank

The bank has little faith in the complete defeat of May, while allowing for this development. Over 220 votes against a pound fall to $ 1.2250. With a less significant margin of 20–100 votes, the sterling is likely to jump to $ 1.3350. If the project is rejected by 20 people, then the British currency is waiting for a rally with a potential yield of $ 1.35.

Danske Bank

The rejection of the draft agreement by 100 or more votes is already a negative for the pound. The bank does not believe that Teresa May will receive approval from Parliament. Further, "we will enter uncharted territory," experts wrote. Maybe anything: the second referendum, the second vote. The odds of the pair GBPUSD bank were in the range of $ 1.25– $ 1.30 until further clarification of the situation.

Rabobank

"Given that the EU does not show any signs and willingness to make concessions, May will probably need a loss with a slight margin in order, as the market thinks, to win the second round, perhaps less than 50 votes," experts write.

This can reassure a pound, which will rise to $ 1.30. Defeat by a margin of 200 votes will not allow the British prime minister to keep the lead. Labor's far-left government will put pressure on sterling, and GBP / USD risks falling to $ 1.15– $ 1.20.