18.01.201906:11 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: China's growth will slow in 2019 and threatens the financial world

China's economy is expected to continue to slow down this year particularly on domestic demand and exports affected by US tariffs. Beijing will most likely have to deploy additional incentive measures.

According to forecasts, China's economic growth will slow to 6.3 percent this year and will be the weakest in 29 years. A significant slowdown in growth in China has already been observed. The resumption of negotiations between the United States and China has increased optimism that Washington may agree to suspend the planned tariff increase, which was originally scheduled to take effect this month. However, a comprehensive agreement to end the dispute seems unlikely, given the number of highly controversial and politically sensitive issues. Even if both sides can conclude a long-term trade deal, it will provide only minor relief to the Chinese economy if Beijing cannot increase domestic investment and demand.

Sources said that China plans to lower its target for economic growth between 6 to 6.5 percent this year. Weak industrial growth and lower consumer spending reduce company profits. Moreover, it also discourages new investment and increases the risk of high job losses. Since earlier growth measures had little impact, we expect Beijing to deploy more incentives in the coming months to prevent a sharp slowdown. More large-scale tax cuts are expected, along with measures to increase consumer demand for products such as household appliances and cars. Both fiscal and monetary policies eased over the past few months and this should begin to spread to the real economy by the second half of this year.