21.02.201910:18 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: US interest rate: the Fed's patient attitude to interest rates will help the American economy

All traders attention was focused yesterday on the publication of the Federal Reserve System protocols from the meeting, which was held in January of this year.

Before the release of the report, the European currency slightly strengthened its position against the US dollar after good data on consumer confidence in the eurozone, which has grown, but this did not help the bulls to build a larger upward trend.

According to yesterday's report, the preliminary eurozone consumer confidence index rose slightly in February of this year to -7.4 points against -7.9 in January. In general, the slowdown in the European economy, trade wars, and uncertainty with Brexit affect consumers' views in the future.

As noted above, all attention was focused on data from the Fed. According to the protocols, leaders called for patience in determining the future rate of interest rates, stating that a patient and flexible approach to monetary policy is now appropriate.

It should be noted that keeping rates unchanged at this stage does not create particular risks, and can even help the economy return to the growth rates observed at the beginning of last year.

A number of Fed representatives noted that after the December interest rate hike, future prospects became more uncertain. The committee is confident that now it is necessary to see more positive data, as well as analyze the influence of the shutdown before making a decision on the rate of rates. This suggests that future monetary policy in the short term will depend on incoming data.

As for the plan to reduce the balance, almost all managers expect its completion this year. However, it is worth noting that the leadership of the Fed already has thoughts of reinvesting income from mortgage-backed securities into treasury bonds after the balance reduction process has been completed.

The minutes also say that the growth of the US economy has become more moderate since the end of last year, and a number of executives have additionally noted an increase in downside risks.

All this once again confirms the fact that the Fed will not be in a hurry to raise rates this year, and so far the maximum that can be expected is one increase in the fall.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it has not changed at all compared to yesterday's forecast. Further growth will directly depend on the resistance level of 1.1355. In case of its breakthrough, the upward trend in EURUSD will resume, which will lead the trading instrument to the highs of 1.1400 and 1.1440. In the case of a downward correction, and as we can see on the chart, before each new wave of euro growth there is a sharp depreciation, large levels of support are viewed in the 1.1315 and 1.1280 ranges.