17.04.201909:43 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD and GBP/USD: what makes investors forget about the approaching recession?

Last week, the reporting season officially began in the United States, which will be the basis of the record growth of the stock market. At first glance, American corporations really look more than confident while massively charging earnings on stocks above market expectations. These include giants such as Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and a number of other smaller ones.

It would seem that steady growth also increases the attractiveness of the US stock market but this was not the case after the Treasury regular report published on Monday. Foreign capital continues to cause dollars to retreat in unprecedented amounts.

Foreign investors do not believe in the strength of the American economy and the current growth of stock indices is the result of a whole range of reasons. The most important ones include the repatriation of capital and the continuing bacchanalia with share repurchases.

Perhaps the next report will show a reversal because it will take into account the results of the March Fed meeting at which the refusal of further rate increases in the current year was finalized. Even fixing rates at the current level may not help stock indices which is why Trump insistently demands the Fed to lower rates by 0.5%. In his opinion, this can ensure the long-term growth of stock markets.

For Trump, this indicator is extremely important because it can be the basis in the 2020 presidential election as an indicator of the success of his economic platform. Since a number of criteria such as the inversion of the yield curve and the growing budget deficit, which brings the recession nearer, Trump strives to do everything possible so that its onset begins after 2020 to escape into defensive assets. Judging by the behavior of the markets in the short term, they do not see any threats. Therefore, the Japanese yen and gold are likely to remain under pressure, and bond yields will continue to creep up.

EUR / USD pair

The indicator of economic sentiment ZEW in Germany rose by 6.7p in April and got into the positive zone at the level of 4.1p after a one-year break. Despite the fact that the expectations curve is still well below the long-term value of 22.2 p, the indicator clearly indicates a recovery.

The growth of the indicator indicates that the imminent arrival of a recession may still be slightly delayed. The postponement of Brexit also contributes to the improvement of expectations and all of these look clearly unconvincing despite the fact that the latest data on industrial production in Germany and new orders.

The EUR/USD impulse weakens and the euro with a high probability goes into the sideways range. The resistance levels are 1.1322 and 1.1331 and the support levels are 1.1270 and 1.1269.

GBP / USD pair

Most of the indicators on the UK labor market remained at levels of December-February a month ago. Unemployment is 3.9% with employment at 76.1%, which was the maximum level in the entire history. The annual growth of the average wage is 3.5%, taking into account bonuses of any country the could envy such indicators.

However, the pound practically did not react to the published data. The postponement of Brexit makes investors remember that there is also the economy besides politics and the pound needs new benchmarks that will help it out of range but it seems that employment data is not the case.

Today, reports on retail prices, producer prices, and consumer inflation in March will be published. Perhaps, the pound will receive new benchmarks while there is still no direction for GBPUSD. Growth is limited by the trend line of 1.3092. The support levels of 1.3030 and 1.2985 and exit from the range are still unlikely.