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4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.
The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.
CCI: 195.0985
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement, which was initially provoked by the desire of traders to fix part of the profit on short positions but was later supported by another package of weak macroeconomic statistics from the States. Similarly, the failed statistics from the Eurozone were ignored by traders. As a result, the euro rose to the highs of May 1 and 13, the CCI indicator shows a strong oversold, and we expect at least a downward correction. Today, June 4, the preliminary value of the consumer price index for May will be published in the European Union. It is expected that the main inflation rate will slow down from 1.7% to 1.3% in annual terms. Given the growth of the euro in the last two days, we cannot say that such a weak value of inflation is already embedded in the euro/dollar exchange rate. Thus, if the forecasts come true, today we can see the return of the markets to the sales of the European currency. Also in Europe today, there will be a report on unemployment, and in the States, Jerome Powell will speak. It should be discussed in more detail. Recently, amid the escalation of the trade war with China and the failed reports from the US, conversations began to emerge that the Fed could go on reducing the rate in the near future. We believe that this information has no basis, as macroeconomic statistics from the United States is really bad only in the last few weeks, and during the first round of the trade conflict with China, the Fed was engaged in tightening monetary policy. The head of the Fed in the evening can dispel or, conversely, confirm this information.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.1230
S2 – 1.1200
S3 – 1.1169
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.1261
R2 – 1.1292
R3 – 1.1322
Trading recommendations:
The currency pair EUR/USD continues the recoilless upward movement. Thus, it is recommended to support previously opened orders to buy the euro with the targets at 1.1292 and 1.1322 before the reversal of the indicator Heiken Ashi down.
It is recommended to buy the US dollar after the bears return the initiative to their hands and there will be a consolidation of the euro/dollar pair under the moving average line with the targets at 1.1139 and 1.1108.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
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