06.06.201902:20 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Britain's exit from the EU threatens to turn around for the next prime minister of the country "shot in the foot"

The GBP/USD pair keeps a positive attitude and is trading near weekly highs at 1.2720 against the background of easing pressure from the dollar and the release of strong UK statistics.

The May release on PMI was published today. It is a key release for the British economy in the services sector. The indicator unexpectedly showed an increase from 50.4 to 51.0 points.

In addition, the pound was supported by a statement by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, on the intention to conclude a trade deal with the UK immediately after it left the EU.

However, it is not yet clear whether the GBP/USD pair will be able to continue to grow against the background of continuing political uncertainty in the United Kingdom.

"Now there is not just a deadline on October 31. It is also the election of the leader of the Conservative party, and large-scale uncertainty about the direction of the country's movement in the context of Brexit," - said Marvin Barth, currency strategist Barclays.

For investors in the British currency, there are three key factors that require close attention:

1. Conservatives. In the past, the main contenders for the post of Tory head often lost the race, and this time the number of candidates exceeds ten people. If former British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson reaches the final stage, he is guaranteed victory. According to experts, his direct charm and good sense of humor seem to be more important for members of the Conservative Party than administrative abilities. In the event that Johnson does not win, several more hard Brexit supporters take part in the race. Investors fear that the country's withdrawal from the EU will turn into a "shot in the foot" for the next prime minister.

2. House of Commons. Lawmakers so far hopelessly disagree on Brexit. There is only one consensus: they do not approve the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU without a deal.

3. European Union. The Alliance can not stop the UK, which is heading for an exit, but repeatedly reiterated that it would not revise the current terms of the deal, which the British MPs rejected. However, the EU has its own problems: it will have to choose a new leadership, therefore, if London offers something new, it will be possible to resume negotiations.

It is assumed that in the event of an implementation of the "hard" scenario, the pound sterling will collapse, some analysts even talking about achieving parity with the dollar. However, if Brexit is canceled, the British currency will soar and reach the mark of $ 1.50, fixed before the 2016 referendum.