04.07.201901:22 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD. 3 July. Results of the day. UK after the US may withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran

4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 45p - 63p - 72p - 74p - 64p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 64p (73p).

Jeremy Hunt, the foreign minister and candidate for prime minister of the United Kingdom, announced that the country may withdraw from the nuclear agreement if Iran violates the terms of the treaty. According to Hunt, he fears a sudden war, but even in the event of a break in the arrangements between London and Tehran, Britain will not join the United States to strike at the territories of Iran. Recall that Washington has already left the nuclear deal, and if the US Senators had not blocked the corresponding amendment to the military budget, then Trump would have struck Iran. According to France, the threshold of low-enriched uranium was exceeded by the Iranian state, and a little later this information was confirmed by the IAEA. This threatens Iran with a break in all trade relations with Great Britain, France and other participants in the "nuclear deal." For Britain, as for the whole world, this is a security threat, since Iran is the main sponsor of world terrorism, according to many politicians and political scientists. Meanwhile, the pound sterling continues to calmly decline in tandem with the dollar. If the macroeconomic statistics for the EUR/USD pair was neutral today, for the GBP/USD pair it was again not in favor of the pound, since both the UK business activity index was below forecasts, and the PMI for the services sector went below the critical level of 50.0. However, it seems that traders are not particularly needed and these indices were needed, since the pound did not stop its decline for the third day. As we have mentioned several times before, until the light at the end of the tunnel called "Brexit" is visible, one should not even dream of any serious strengthening of the pound sterling. The United States is the only one that could bail out the pound now and only if their economic performance continues to fall. However, as we can see, "numbers" in the UK also leave much to be desired.

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar currency pair continues its downward movement. Thus, traders are advised to continue to sell the pound sterling with a target of 1,2521 until the MACD indicator reverses to the top, which would indicate a round of correction.

It will be possible to buy the British currency no earlier than when the pair consolidates above the Kijun-sen line. In this case, the bulls will get a small chance to implement their trading strategies, but so far they remain extremely weak.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.