15.07.201914:50 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: The US refusal from the policy of a strong dollar can not only weaken the greenback, but also provoke currency wars

According to Bank of America (BofA) experts, if the head of the White House, Donald Trump, wants to weaken the American currency, it can be done quite easily - it is enough to abandon the strong dollar policy.

"A strong dollar policy can be replaced by a strong economic growth policy, during which the USD rate can be adjusted accordingly," representatives of the financial institution said.

According to BofA, Washington's transition to a policy of strong growth may weaken the dollar by about 5-10%.

"The policy of a strong dollar has consolidated the status of the world reserve currency to the latter, which allowed the United States government to reduce financing costs since the country's trading partners place their dollars in US Treasury securities. Therefore, the US administration should act cautiously so as not to undermine investor confidence in US assets," said bank analysts.

"A sharp weakening of the USD in the context of a slowing global economy, falling inflation expectations, a limited arsenal of monetary policy tools and trade tensions can cause a response from other central banks. Thus, the US refusal from a strong dollar policy may even provoke currency wars, "they added.

In turn, Specialists at Goldman Sachs warned that the US administration can weaken the dollar with the help of currency intervention.

"In recent years, the United States has not resorted to direct currency interventions, although until 1995 this practice was used quite often. On the one hand, an intervention aimed at weakening the dollar will reduce the cost of exporting goods from the United States, which theoretically should support the country's economy. On the other hand, if the White House decides to take such a step, then we should expect a tangible market reaction, which will be reflected in a weakening of the greenback, a strengthening of the yen and a fall in risky assets. In addition, interventions directed against traditional trading partners - for example, in relation to the EU, will lead to an escalation of international trade tensions, which means that they may turn out to be counterproductive", Goldman Sachs believes.