14.08.201907:28 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Overview of EUR/USD on August 14th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". The euro currency is inclined to fall again

4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: -168.4884

On August 14, the EUR/USD pair strengthened below the moving average line, after five attempts to overcome the Murray level of "4/8" - 1.1230. Thus, if traders manage to lower the euro/dollar pair below the Murray level of "3/8" - 1.1169 (the lower limit of the side channel of the last days), then officially it will be possible to recognize that the downward trend has resumed. It is probably impossible to say that the US dollar strengthened strongly yesterday, but the July inflation report nevertheless provided little support. Today, the preliminary values of GDP (for the second quarter) and industrial production (for June) in the European Union will be published. It is noteworthy that the forecasts for these indicators are very low. GDP is projected to grow by 1.1% y/y and 0.2% q/q, and industrial production has a negative forecast of -1.2% y/y. Thus, it will be difficult for the euro to show growth today, especially above the level of 1.1230, as the pair has not yet left the side channel. Based on this, it is more likely that the downward trend will resume. No major macroeconomic publications are planned in the States today. Participants in the forex market still do not pay much attention to the trade war between China and the United States, as well as the Fed's plans to soften monetary policy in the future.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1169

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.1047

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1292

R3 – 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair continues to trade in the side channel limited by the Murray levels of "3/8" and "4/8". If the bears manage to secure the euro/dollar pair below the level of "3/8", it will be possible to trade on the decline with the target of 1.1108. It is recommended to return to the pair's purchases not earlier than the Murray level of "4/8".

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Haiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.