17.09.201912:53 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Oil extended a helping hand to greenback

The UAV attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, which removed 5-6% of the world supply of black gold from the market, not only helped to raise Brent quotes at the moment by 19%, but also supported the greenback.

Theoretically, a rise in the price of raw materials leads to an increase in gas prices and American spending on these purposes, which reduces the consumption of other goods and services in the United States. At the same time, inflation is accelerating in the country, which in the conditions of stable GDP growth and a strong labor market may, if not force, the Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate then at least refuse to reduce it.

However, the Fed sees the surge in oil prices as a temporary phenomenon and they are prepared to tolerate inflation above the 2% target during periods of economic expansion. In addition, an attack on the manufacturing sector of Saudi Arabia could replenish the list of international risks, which will be another "dovish" argument at the September meeting of the FOMC.

It should be noted that now the United States is less susceptible to the negative impact of the growth of Brent and WTI quotes than in the 1970s when the bullish oil market situation provoked a recession in the country. America is currently an exporter of black gold, which makes high prices for raw materials are less painful for it than for the eurozone, the Middle Kingdom and Japan Apparently, it is the growing risks of increasing divergence in the economic growth of the United States and other countries that force investors to buy greenbacks.

Only one day remained before the announcement of the results of the next meeting of the Federal Reserve.

The regulator is expected to lower the interest rate by 0.25% to 2.00%. This decision has been largely taken into account in the USD rate. If the Fed management does not make harsh statements, then the dollar will most likely resume growth after a short-term decline while remaining a protective asset in the context of trade wars.

Greenback could weaken sharply if the Fed announces plans to further mitigate monetary policy. In this regard, the American Central Bank has much wider room for maneuver than its colleagues, including the ECB.