23.09.201913:02 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Saudi Arabia sets the tone -a year without cheap oil?

Saudi Arabia's plans to quickly launch oil infrastructure were not destined to come true after attacks on the king's refineries. According to preliminary estimates, the restoration of oil refineries will take several months or even a year.

In the event of such protracted restoration work, the market should not rely on cheap oil, analysts are sure. In such a situation, the price of black gold will rise. Saudi Arabia is a key player in the oil market, so the forced shortage of raw materials arising from the recent incident will seriously affect oil quotes.

Earlier, the leadership of the largest state-owned company Saudi Aramco planned to restore damaged oil facilities in a few weeks but a more realistic scenario involves working for months or even close to a year. Now, Saudi Aramco is in urgent negotiations with equipment manufacturers and service providers, offering any price in order to start production as soon as possible.

Recall that as a result of the attack of drones at the refineries of the kingdom, a hundred sides of the Houthi Yemeni rebels more than doubled production in Saudi Arabia. It fell by almost 6 million barrels per day, experts say. However, the country's energy minister said that production levels have been restored at the moment by almost 50% due to the use of reserves. He also emphasized that oil supplies returned to their previous levels.

Nevertheless, there are no positive trends in the black gold market. At the opening of trading on Monday, September 23, a quotation rise of about half a percent was recorded. A barrel of North Sea Brent mixture cost about $65. In the future, correction began and almost all of the growth was leveled. Temporary retirement of the largest player in the oil market was a kind of shock for the market. Many leading market players cannot decide yet in which direction will the quotes move.

According to analysts, oil has been trading sideways for several days. It is possible that market participants are waiting for new signals or important news that will help in making decisions.

The difficult situation with the restoration of oil infrastructure casts doubt on the feasibility of Saudi Aramco's plans for an initial public offering (IPO). Earlier, the Saudi oil giant was considered as one of the most profitable enterprises in the world. However, the authorities of the kingdom do not lose optimism in this case. According to Mohammed Al-Jadaan, the country's finance minister, Saudi Arabia still plans to conduct an IPO of the oil giant. The kingdom noted that assuming this will happen within the next 12 months.