04.10.201906:37 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 4, 2019

EUR/USD

In anticipation of today's important US employment data, the euro has moved into a neutral technical position for a likely major move. On the daily chart, the price is kept at the Fibonacci level of 138.2%, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator probes the border with the growth territory, from which there can be either a downward movement or, with breaking through, further growth. The forecast for new jobs outside the agricultural sector is 145 thousand against 130 thousand in August, an increase in the average wage in September is expected to be 0.3%. Previously published data on private sector employment and the employment sub-indexes in the ISM PMI structure suggest that weaker Nonfarm Payrolls today, but overall positive data on weekly applications for unemployment benefits give optimism, the total number of citizens receiving this benefit, reduced 5 consecutive weeks. In such a situation, investors may already be wondering: how much worse than the forecast should the data go in order to be considered weak, to be accepted by the Federal Reserve as one of the reasons for a rate cut at the end of the month? There are often no answers to such a question. Historically, such a boundary number for Nonfarm is considered to be 100 thousand.

Our main scenario - Nonfarm Payrolls will come out good. The main indicator here is recognized as the least vulnerable to manipulation (as it is considered by a number of the largest consulting companies) weekly reports on applications for unemployment benefits. Based on them, we are reaching exactly the forecasted figure of 140-145 thousand. With support no worse than expectations for wage growth (0.3%), the dollar may return to strengthening. Technically, when the euro moves below the signal level 1.0926, the target 1.0845 opens - the Fibonacci level is 161.8%. The release of still weak data will lead the euro to the MACD line with the target of 1.1055.

On a four-hour chart, the price is consolidating between the support of the MACD line and the resistance of the Fibonacci level of 138.2% (1.0985). The Marlin indicator in the growth zone moves horizontally. The situation is neutral, the market is waiting for important data.