13.11.201911:09 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD: the pound is still awake, but may collapse sharply

The GBP/USD pair continued to retreat from the level of 1.2900 and came under pressure on Tuesday. However, it managed to gain a foothold under the 100-day moving average and attract buyers in the area of 1.2820, where the resistance line of the weekly trend passes.

This mark coincides with the 61.8% correction of the "bullish" move at 1.2769-1.2899 and should play a key role in determining the direction of the pair.

The bulls need a breakdown of 1.2900 to move the quotes to 1.30. A fall below the mentioned resistance line will target the pair at 1.2800, 1.2770, and 1.2715.

The pound rose by more than 1% last month after the appointment of early elections by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who believes that the Conservative Party will win a majority of seats in parliament.

Although the chances of a Tory victory increased after the statements of the leader of the Brexit party Nigel Farage to avoid competition with the conservatives in the upcoming elections, investors remain cautious in the options market and continue to expect the pound to become weak.

"Apparently, the market is not yet sufficiently sure that conservatives will achieve a significant majority next month," Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce currency strategists said.

"Despite the conservative leadership in opinion polls, the magnitude of the overflow of voters in the last two elections, associated with the prospect of tactical voting, means that the outcome of the upcoming elections is very difficult to predict at the moment with any degree of confidence," they added.

According to experts, the pound has acted as a risk barometer in the three-year Brexit process, and the result of the December 12 election will determine the path for Albion's exit from the European Union.

Market participants are still wary of the vote, which may not bring a clear majority of the Tories or end with the formation of a coalition led by the opposition Labor Party. These two scenarios could turn out for the UK to further negotiations with the EU on Brexit or a new referendum.

Recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that investors continue to have short positions in the pound, although they have slightly reduced them. This could make the British currency more vulnerable to a sharp recession if investor sentiment becomes more negative.