06.12.201909:20 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Today, the focus of the markets is on US employment data (we expect the decline of EUR/USD pair and resumption of gold decline)

Today, the attention of the markets will be turned to the publication of data on US employment, which will play an important role in the Fed's final decision on monetary policy as early as next week, December 11.

According to the consensus forecast, the American economy received 175,000 new jobs in November, against 131,000 a month earlier. It is also expected to maintain unemployment at around 3.6%.

These data are really very important, since the latest production indicators were not so positively clear, which could hit the labor market in America amid signals of a slowdown in the country's economy. In addition to these values, you should pay attention to the numbers of the index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan today. The indicator is forecasted to grow to 88.0 points in December against 87.3 points in November. The average hourly wage will also be important, which is expected to grow in November by 0.3% against the October increase of 0.2%.

It can be assumed that this will undoubtedly have a supporting effect on the US dollar exchange rate if the statistics do not disappoint, which has been declining in its index terms to the basket of major currencies for the last six trading sessions. Moreover, the latest noticeable blow came from the weak data on the number of new jobs from ADP, which caused a wave of pessimism, supported by the problems of US-Chinese trade negotiations. At the moment, there is some correlation between the dynamics of the dollar and negotiations. Thus, if optimism is noted, then this supports the American currency, while negative news, on the contrary, puts pressure on it.

In general, we remain optimistic by observing the situation in the markets, since we believe that a trade agreement between Washington and Beijing will probably be concluded after the New Year holidays, and this, in turn, will significantly affect the Fed's position in deciding on interest rates. The conclusion of the negotiations will restrain the Federal Reserve from the desire to lower further the level of borrowing costs.

Forecast of the day:

EUR/USD is trading above 1.1090. Strong US employment data will put pressure on it. Meanwhile, a decline below 1.1090 will lead to a fall in prices to 1.1050, and then to 1.0990.

Gold is declining amid D. Trump's positive rhetoric regarding trade negotiations with China. Strong values for the number of new jobs from the US Department of Labor can only increase the price reduction, which could fall to 1451.40.