16.12.201911:24 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: New Year's fairy tale for investors

Good afternoon, dear traders! Today, all analysts and news agencies relish the news about the conclusion of a trade transaction between the United States and China, reinforcing their enthusiasm for the growth of the S&P 500 wide market index. But as you have probably noticed a long time ago, I am not a supporter of standard approaches in analysis and, especially, trading.

Let's take an objective look at what we really have after signing the "first phase".

1. There has been no official announcement yet. The signing is expected in early January, according to US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

2. Americans cancel only part of the tariffs for goods from China. Namely, they will not introduce new charges from December 15, keep tariffs of 25% on Chinese imports in the amount of $ 250 billion, and also reduce the tariffs on Chinese goods in the amount of $ 120 billion by half which is 7.5%.

3. China agreed on the two-year increase in the imports of US agricultural products by $ 50 billion per year (whoever controls them).

4. China has postponed the increase in charges on American cars, scheduled for December 15 (in general - up to 40%). Postponed, but not canceled.

5. The condition of China on not to publish the text of the document (of course, so that they are not reproached for its non-compliance).

6. The second phase of negotiations will take place after the US presidential election in 2020, and it's far from the fact that Mr. Trump will win this election and that China can easily "move out" of its "obligations", and everyone understands this very well. Therefore, in my opinion, Trump is gaining electoral points, and China is simply pulling time. Well, investors revel in their hopes.

The only "fact" is that the introduction of new tariffs planned this month from both sides will not be introduced.