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After a continuous six-day fall in the euro, yesterday I decided to take a break in the indicated consolidation range of 1.0880-1.0925. Today, the decline may continue since data on the industrial production of the euro area for December is published, the forecast is -1.8%. After the collapse of the Italian industrial production, which was shown on Monday (-2.7% m/m against the forecast of -0.5%), we are waiting for today's worse than expected European index. The purpose of pulling down the euro to 1.0880 is the October 1 low. The second target is the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.0840. This is the main scenario.
The scenario with the continuation of the correction has a probability of 35%. Here, when prices are consolidated above yesterday's high, it is possible to grow to the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.0970.
On a four-hour chart, the price is staying in the 1.0880-1.0925 range, making it possible for the Marlin oscillator to discharge before a new wave of decline. A short-term price exit above the upper limit of this range is possible.
At this price scale, the alternative scenario looks more distinct with growth - the MACD line and a correction of 38.2% of the decline branch from January 31 converge at this level.
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