29.05.202004:59 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Forecast for EUR/USD on May 29, 2020

EUR/USD

Yesterday, investors' expectations for positive US data did not materialize. The volume of orders for durable goods fell by 17.2% in April after a previous drop of 14.7%. The forecast was -19.0%, but of -17.2% optimism, of course, does not cause. The second estimate of GDP for the first quarter was revised down from -4.8% to -5.0% against the forecast without change (i.e. -4.8%). As a result, the dollar index lost -0.47%, the euro grew by 68 points, the S&P 500 fell by 0.21%.

Macro statistics do not have to wait for optimism to an even greater extent today. The forecast for personal incomes of consumers for April is -7.0%, for personal expenses -12.6% versus the March contraction of -7.5%. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Chicago region in May is expected to increase from 35.4 to 40.1, but here (in the spirit of the times) there is a great emotional component, so the data may turn out to be worse.

The euro is moving towards its first target of 1.1140 on the daily chart. Whether there will be a price reversal from this level or the euro will continue to grow higher is currently not clear, since there are no prerequisites for technical signs in any direction. Price in a local situation is a leading factor, indicators in a guided position.

The price and indicators are growing on the H4 chart, there are no signs of a reversal. We are waiting for the price on the embedded line of the price channel of 1.1140.